【讲座题目】Recent Trends in Global Income Distribution and Their Political Implications
The last quarter century of globalization has witnessed the largest reshuffle of global incomes since the Industrial revolution. The main factor behind the "reshuffle" was the rise of China, and to a slightly lesser extent, of all Asia. This drove the global Gini index down, by about 2 points over the twenty-year period, 1988-2013 for which we have a new panel database of country/deciles from almost 100 countries. By tracking the evolution of individual country-deciles and deriving the global Growth Incidence Curve we are able to show the underlying elements that drove the change. Three changes stand out.
First, China has graduated from the bottom ranks, modifying the overall shape of the global income distribution in the process and creating an important global “middle” class that has transformed a twin-peaked 1988 global distribution into a single-peaked one now. The “winners” were country-deciles that in 1988 were around the median of the global income distribution, 90% of whom in terms of population are from Asia.
Second, the “losers” were the country-deciles that in 1988 were around the 85th percentile (that is, relatively high) of the global income distribution. Almost 90% of them are from OECD economies.
Third, another “winner “was the global top 1% whose incomes, even if underestimated by household surveys, rose substantially.
These three changes open up the following three political issues: how to manage the rising expectations of meaningful political participations in emerging countries like China, how to "placate" the rich countries' globalization losers so that they do not turn away from globalization and support populist anti-immigrant policies, and how to constraint the rising economic and political power of the global top 1%.
【One para summary】
The talk will discuss the evolution in global income inequality and focus on its political implications; in particular, the rise of the middle class in Asia, income stagnation of the rich countries’ middle classes, migration as part of globalization, and the emergence of global plutocracy (global top 1 percent).
A development and inequality specialist, he is since January 2014 Branko Milanovic is a Visiting Presidential Professor at the Graduate Center City University of New York and a Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) Senior Scholar. Milanovic’s main area of work is income inequality, within countries and globally, as well as historically in pre-industrial societies. His most recent book, Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization (2016), addresses economic and political issues of globalization. It was translated in sixteen languages and awarded the 2017 Bruno Kreisky Prize and 2018 Hans Matthöfer Prize. Branko was awarded (jointly with Mariana Mazzucato) the 2018 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Knowledge.